Pandemic-Era Uncertainty
نویسندگان
چکیده
We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead since the pandemic struck. Both one-year VIX our survey-based measure firm-level a forecast horizon doubled onset then fell half-way back pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021. Second, in contrast, 1-month VIX, Twitter-based Economic Uncertainty Index, macro forecaster disagreement all rose sharply reaction but retrenched almost completely Third, Categorical Policy Indexes highlight changing sources uncertainty—from healthcare fiscal policy spring 2020 elevated around monetary national security as May 2022. Fourth, risk perceptions skewed heavily downside shifted rapidly upside from fall onwards. Perceived remains highly early Fifth, survey evidence suggests that is exerting only mild restraint on capital investment plans for 2022 2023, perhaps because perceived risks are so upside.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of risk and financial management
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1911-8074', '1911-8066']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15080338